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Fibonacci Technical Analysis of Financial Markets

In a earlier article, I confirmed how it’s totally attainable to make income in buying and selling the monetary markets, through the use of easy Fibonacci sections of waves that happen in all markets. This has the benefit that straightforward Fibonacci charts can be utilized, with out the necessity for sophisticated technical indicators.

The Fibonacci sequence is derived from the pure progress sequence of two, three, 5, eight, thirteen, 21, 34, fifty five and on to infinity. I confirmed how the ratio of every quantity is said to the one earlier than it by the ratio of 1.618.., and to the one simply forward of it by the ratio zero.618.. Apparently, these ratios nonetheless apply if any start line is chosen! So that a sequence beginning at, say, 15, would have the sequence 15,15,30,forty five,seventy five,one hundred twenty,195,315, and so forth. This is able to produce the identical ratios of 1.618 and zero.618! The Golden Ratio, or Golden Imply, 1.618, is given the identify phi.

Progress in nature (rising markets) is expressed by 1.618 and 1.618 squared ( = 2.618). Decay (falling markets) is expressed by their inverse fractions, zero.618, and zero.382. However in fact, progress of all pure issues takes place in spurts, adopted by set-backs, after which one other spurt, and so forth (three steps ahead and a couple of steps again). By way of observing many inventory charts, early technical analysts found that when a market makes a strong transfer (up or down), then the corrections typically cease at Fibonacci numbers of zero.618 (sixty one.eight%) or zero.382 (38.2%) of the wave’s transfer. Additional out, if we take a look at 1.618 cubed (four.236), its inverse is zero.236 (23.6).

This will work on very brief-time period charts and even month-to-month charts. A superb instance is that of the British Pound/Greenback. Initially of 2008, the Pound was buying and selling across the $2.00 space, however then suffered an enormous decline beginning in July 2008 and bottoming in January 2009 at 1.3460 space. It then staged a robust rally, topping at 1.7050 space in August 2009. It has since then dropped to a current low of 1.4216 on Might twentieth 2010. This degree represents a seventy six.four% retracement, or 23.6% from an entire retracement. The chart seems to be very lovely. I’ve been on the lookout for a low-danger entry level to go lengthy since then.

I’ve discovered that deep retracements of sixty one.eight% and seventy six.four% are quite common, and sometimes give us a low-danger entry level for a development change. If I do Fibonacci charting to discover a retracement degree with an entire 5- or a three-wave Elliott sample, along with a divergence in a momentum oscillator, then I’ve a really excessive potential profitable commerce. Selecting Fibonacci retracements permits me to put shut protecting stops (in case I’m mistaken).

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